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Windmills of your mind
When things are bad, people think they are the worst of times. Today we have inflation, rising rates, slowing growth and polarized politics.
Summer blooms or temporary displays?
The mood is temporarily better in markets.
Pull to par
Bond yields are still low relative to current inflation and to their history. As such, there isn’t much bullishness around fixed income.
Soft-ish landing (with luck)
The Bank of England’s hike accompanied by the forecast of a recession next year should be a warning for central banks elsewhere in their quest for a “painless tightening”.
In the thick of the tightening
The Fed is doing a good job now, putting up rates along the path that it has successfully set out for the market.
Back to which future?
It would be extraordinary if advanced economies had reverted to the price and wage setting behaviours of forty years ago in the space of just one year.
E. Macron’s second mandate will likely start with the prolongation of the Keynesian/interventionist stance of the last 2 years, although the financial room for manoeuvre is smaller.
Soft landing anyone?
Market pricing and economic forecasts currently point to a soft landing in the US.
The IFO survey’s forward-looking components in manufacturing are now below the levels seen during the “mini recession” of 2012-2013.